About The Market Notebook
The Market Notebook is Nico de Bony’s weekly publication on the economy and financial markets. It provides a concise summary of the developments that genuinely deserve your attention.
What’s changing in the economy and markets. What really matters.
The goal is not to summarize everything that happened during the week. Instead, I focus on separating the noise from the changes that may genuinely alter my view of the economy, markets, or the risks worth monitoring.
Each week, generally on Monday or Tuesday, I review my detailed research notes to identify the developments, data, divergences, and trend changes that genuinely deserve your attention.
Some weeks will reveal several important changes. Others will reveal very few. I do not try to artificially fill a publication: I prioritize relevance over volume.
Receive the next weekly notes for free.
What I Monitor
My analysis primarily covers the U.S. economy, the Canadian economy in the in-depth edition, major central banks, and financial markets, with a particular focus on U.S. equities.
Depending on current developments, this can also include credit, artificial intelligence, geopolitics, energy, or other emerging risks capable of changing market dynamics.
Among the strategic assets I follow closely are the S&P 500, Nasdaq, major technology stocks, gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
I analyze these subjects by combining technical and fundamental analysis, allowing me to compare economic narratives with what the markets are actually showing.
The goal is not to cover every one of these subjects every week. I focus on the areas where conditions have changed enough to deserve your attention.
The Free Edition
The free edition is designed to give you the essential signal without requiring you to constantly monitor the markets.
It includes the most important changes I have identified, my key conclusions, the catalysts and situations I am monitoring, and selected charts or data when they add meaningful value.
I will also continue to publish my public videos and, when a market change becomes sufficiently important and confirmed, occasional public alerts.
The In-Depth Edition
For readers who want to go further, the in-depth edition provides greater access to the behind-the-scenes reasoning behind my analysis: how I reach my conclusions, what I am monitoring, and a broader selection of the information I consider most useful.
Paid subscribers have access to:
a more developed analysis of the week’s most important topics, with additional context on the elements supporting my conclusions;
a broader selection of useful charts, data, and sources when they add meaningful value to the analysis;
situations placed under active watch and updates when developments warrant them, helping identify potentially important changes earlier;
my section covering the Canadian economy;
access to comments and discussions reserved for paid subscribers, providing a place to ask general questions and explore the analysis in a more focused and constructive environment.
The goal is not to provide more content simply for the sake of volume. It is to provide more depth where it matters.
This publication does not reproduce all of my internal research materials. It provides a structured synthesis of the information, charts, and sources that most deserve your attention.
Comments and discussions remain general and educational. They do not constitute personalized support or a real-time analysis service.
My Approach: Detect Change, Don’t Predict Every Move
I do not try to predict every market move.
Instead, I assess changing probabilities by combining:
economic and fundamental data;
market structure and technical analysis;
market breadth, momentum, and positioning;
investor sentiment and crowd psychology.
Collective psychology plays an important role in the formation of market excesses, tops, bottoms, and rebounds. I therefore look for moments when economic data, price action, and investor behavior begin to converge or, alternatively, contradict one another.
The objective is to separate meaningful changes from daily noise and help you develop a more structured approach to investing and risk management.
An independent publication
For over a year, I have shared my research and analysis for free. Although I am regularly contacted by companies interested in sponsoring my content, I have chosen not to accept sponsors so far in order to preserve my editorial independence.
Paid subscriptions therefore provide both greater access to my work and a direct way to support a publication that does not depend on outside sponsors.
About Nico de Bony
I am an investment coach, educator, and the founder of OPTI Strategies.
I help self-directed investors managing substantial portfolios make clearer decisions, manage risk more effectively, and retain control of their capital.
My role is not to tell you what to buy or sell, or when to do it. Instead, I share analytical frameworks, tools, and technical knowledge that can help you make your own decisions through a more structured process.
I also teach options strategies that can help investors define risk in advance, protect substantial positions, and approach investing in ways that many people are not yet familiar with. When used with discipline, these strategies can fundamentally change how a portfolio and its risks are managed.
Invest with probabilities, not predictions.
Important disclaimer
The Market Notebook, the OPTI Strategies website, videos, emails, publications, comments, charts, downloadable materials, educational programs, coaching sessions, and other content or services provided by Nicolas de Bony or OPTI Strategies Inc. are offered solely for general informational and educational purposes.
This content may include observations, opinions, analytical methods, educational strategies, and assessments of probabilities. It does not take into account your financial circumstances, objectives, risk tolerance, investment horizon, experience, or knowledge. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, a personalized recommendation, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security, option, derivative, or other financial product.
Nicolas de Bony and OPTI Strategies Inc. are not registered with any securities regulatory authority as an adviser, dealer, or portfolio manager. No subscription, comment, discussion, educational program, or other interaction creates an advisory, portfolio management, or fiduciary relationship. Questions and discussions remain general and educational and are not a substitute for professional guidance tailored to your circumstances.
Some publications may describe how Nicolas de Bony interprets a situation, evaluates a risk-reward profile, or monitors particular market areas. These examples illustrate a personal analytical process and are not instructions to be copied. A strategy or transaction considered appropriate in one context may be unsuitable for another person or at another time.
Investing and trading involve significant risks, including the partial or complete loss of invested capital. Options and other derivatives are complex, are not appropriate for every investor, and can result in substantial losses. Depending on the strategy used, losses may sometimes exceed the amount initially committed. Strategies intended to reduce certain risks may themselves involve costs, limitations, additional risks, and the need for ongoing adjustments.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. You remain solely responsible for every investment or trading decision you make. You should conduct your own research, independently verify the information presented, and consult appropriately qualified independent professionals who understand your circumstances when necessary.
Analyses and opinions reflect Nicolas de Bony’s interpretation at the time of publication. They may change rapidly as new information becomes available or market conditions evolve. Content is not updated continuously, and no obligation is assumed to revise, supplement, or republish an analysis after it has been released.
Information is based in part on public data and sources believed to be reliable when consulted. However, its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, and relevance are not guaranteed. Errors, omissions, delays, data problems, or incorrect interpretations may occur. All content is provided “as is,” without any express or implied warranty regarding its accuracy or the results that may arise from its use.
Financial interests disclosure
Nicolas de Bony and OPTI Strategies Inc. invest in financial markets and may have direct or indirect exposure to the indices, sectors, commodities, securities, or other instruments discussed in their content.
Such exposure may include stocks, exchange-traded funds, options, or strategies combining multiple positions. It may be bullish, bearish, hedged, or relatively neutral and may change without notice.
For security and privacy reasons, Nicolas de Bony does not publish the complete composition, size, value, or detailed terms of his personal positions. Nothing in the content should be interpreted as an invitation to replicate a transaction or as an indication of what transactions another person should undertake.
Unless expressly disclosed, Nicolas de Bony and OPTI Strategies Inc. do not receive compensation from an issuer, fund, or other promoter for presenting or analyzing a security or financial product. Any relevant commercial relationship or compensation will be disclosed when it exists.
To the fullest extent permitted by law, Nicolas de Bony and OPTI Strategies Inc. shall not be liable for losses or damages arising from decisions made on the basis of this content. This provision is not intended to exclude any liability that cannot legally be limited or excluded.
Applicable rules may vary according to your country, province, state, or territory. You are responsible for verifying the legal, tax, and regulatory requirements applicable to your circumstances before entering into a transaction or using a service.
